Previewing the Green Bay Packers with Packers Blogger Andy Tisdel

Over the course of last season, Andy Tisdel of Oak Creek Patch had done a Q&A with me on a couple of occasions. This year, we have agreed to do it again. Last week, Andy posted my answers to his questions about the Detroit Lions. This week, I post his answers regarding the Green Bay Packers, the NFC North, and expectations for 2012. This is our story:

1) What in your opinion went wrong last year? Obviously, it's hard to complain about a 15-1 season, but no one in Green Bay was looking for a regular season championship. Was this a case of the Packers not playing their best football when they needed to, or was there something truly wrong with the team?

Andy Tisdel: Yeah, give me the Stanley Cup over the President's Cup any day. One thing that I think went wrong--and this was the case back in 2007 as well when the Packers went to the NFC Championship--was that the quality of play slipped a lot over the second half of the season, especially when the division title and so forth were in the bag. There was the loss to Kansas City. There was what was really a sloppy game against Oakland, even though it was a blowout win. There was that Week 16 game where we let the Bears' third- and fourth-string RBs roll up something like 200 yards rushing on us. In hindsight, there were a lot of ways that the Packers were kind of slowing down during the second half of the season, and they all came out against the Giants. There's been an ongoing debate over whether the Packers gave the game away or just got beat by a better team, played out among NY and GB fans and in the media; in my opinion, the Giants played a great game, but no sane person who watched the game thinks they beat the Packers on their best day. But at the same time, the playoffs are about showing up when you've gotta show up, and the Packers did not.

As far as something wrong with the team... I think there was a problem with handling the Super Bowl victory, and I think it was mostly on the defensive side of the ball. (This is mostly just my theory, so treat it as such.) The Packers are one of those teams with a head coach that mostly involves himself with one side of the ball. Mike McCarthy leads and speaks to and motivates the whole team, but he's heavily involved with offensive game-planning and scheming in a way that he isn't on defense, i.e. he interacts with the offensive players a lot more. McCarthy mostly leaves the defense to Dom Capers, our DC. And while Capers has a reputation for being a really good defensive schemer, I don't think leadership and inspiration and motivation are really his strong suits. This is all just speculation by me, since I'm not inside the building, but last year the offense was phenomenal and the defense was a plane crash. A lot of defensive players--B.J. Raji, Sam Shields, Morgan Burnett, A.J. Hawk, etc. had down years or didn't play to their 2010 form, while the offense as a whole was even better in '11 than '10. Injuries were a factor in the defensive collapse, but it's my guess--one more emphasis on guess--that that organizational problem was a factor as well.


2) There has been a lot of talk about the NFC North and whether the Bears or Lions have closed the gap between themselves and the Packers. How do you see the North playing out this year, and who do you see as the Packers biggest threat?

That is a tough question. I would say the Lions--swear I'm not pandering--because they have had that extra year to build off of their successes, to build chemistry as an offensive unit. As far as I know, all of the offensive players that were essential to last year's success are returning. The Bears have some more uncertainty. Even with the offense tailored to Cutler and Marshall, Marshall is still a newcomer and adjusting is going to take time. Same with Hester and trying to make him into a WR again. Same with their perennial shuffles on the offensive line. It just looks from here like the Lions have had that much more continuity and opportunities to grow without new things to get used to. I don't see the Packers, Bears and Lions being separated in the final standings this year by more than two games total. I still think the Packers should be the favorites for a second straight division title, but they aren't going to run away with it like last year.


3) How worried should Packers fans be about their backup quarterback situation? With Matt Flynn gone and Graham Harrell struggling, do you see the Packers going after a new backup, like the recently released Vince Young? Are the Packers completely done if Aaron Rodgers goes down?

I would say fairly worried. I'm personally hoping we manage to trade for or claim Matt Moore off of waivers, but I think the issue has been kind of overblown. With basically any top-10 quarterback--Brady, either Manning, Brees, Romo, Vick, whoever--if they go down for the year, you're done. Season over. It's such a QB-driven league that even if you can make a playoff push, like the Patriots did in '08 after Brady went down, the odds are you're not going to go very far. (See: the 2011 Texans.) In that respect, whether it's Graham Harrell or Moore or almost any backup QB... maybe not completely done, but our Super Bowl hopes would go from 'well within the realm of possibility' to 'maybe an outside chance'. I don't see the Packers going after Young for any number of reasons--ours is an extremely complicated offense and he hasn't had success with those, he's got a reputation as a loudmouth, etc., but I would not be surprised to see us claim a decent veteran. (Also, not to pick on Young, but if you're released by Buffalo... I'm just saying, that's an indication he doesn't have much left.)

4) The Packers spent almost all of their draft picks trying to improve the defense. Do you expect to see a big improvement in the defense this year? Many believe the defense took a big step back last year, do you see it that way? Any rookie looking like they'll have a big impact this year?

To "did the defense take a step back", there's no question whatsoever. Like I was saying up above, a lot of players had bad years from an individual standpoint, but the combination of that + injuries to/release of key players/ + possible lack of attention from head coach was just a toxic one. It was one of the worst collapses from year to year that I've ever seen.

Having said all that, I do believe the defense will jump back to at least adequate this year for two big reasons. One is that Tramon Williams' shoulder is healthy, and that just opens up the defense so much for Capers. Williams is one of the best cover corners in football when he can play press coverage, which he couldn't do last year because of nerve damage suffered in Week 1. I think Capers can be a lot more creative with his coverages and blitzes, knowing that.

The other is that we finally, finally, finally have a legitimate pass-rush threat opposite Clay Matthews. This is something that the D has been missing since 2009. Last year, the Packers couldn't generate pressure from multiple angles; they just had Matthews moving around but no other credible threats. This year they should have at least two or three players who can rush the QB consistently. This goes back to your question about the rookies. Perry has a lot to learn about being an OLB (he was a collegiate DE), but he's shown a ton of athletic ability and raw power. Jerel Worthy is excitable and hasn't shown a lot of gap discipline as yet, but he also has potential. For both of them and for the other rookies, they have the potential to have a big impact, but the best thing they can do is create opportunities for the Packers' existing stars. Put another way, Perry will likely create more sacks for Matthews then he will create on his own... and he will benefit as well from Matthews' presence. For me at least, that's the biggest reason for optimism.


5) What is the biggest obstacle the Packers face on their journey to a second championship in three years? Lastly, what's your prediction for the year?

The Packers' biggest obstacle is going to be injuries. We've already lost one Pro Bowl-level player for the year in Desmond Bishop. Luckily, we're deep at inside linebacker, but there's an uncomfortably large number of positions where we aren't--offensive tackle, safety, quarterback and running back spring to mind. The 2010 Packers could absorb ridiculous numbers of injuries because they had good players ready to go and good coaches using them correctly. The 2012 Packers will need to stay healthy at those positions to capture another title.

They're also going to need to get it together when it counts. I think I can safely predict that the Packers will make the playoffs somehow if Rodgers stays healthy; they're just too good and too talented not to, despite all the Lions and Bears can throw at them (and it's going to be close). It's what happens once they're there that concerns me. Green Bay responded amazingly to adversity in 2010; as a privileged No. 1 seed in 2011, they collapsed. It's up to the coaching staff to coax the best out of the team when the time comes, and up to the players to give it. If they can do that--and I think they can--then Aaron Rodgers will get his second ring come February.

--

Andy Tisdel is the Packers blogger for Oak Creek Patch, and also runs his own site at  http://tisdelstirades.blogspot.com/ Check them out!

Two Days Late Preseason "Live" Blog: Lions at Raiders

Today I "live" blog the Lions' third preseason game against the Oakland Raiders. I will only be blogging the first half, as I saw and commented on the second half on twitter. For my thoughts on the second half, head to my twitter timeline (hint: there was CAPSLOCK PANIC aplenty).

First Quarter

14:50 - Tully with the coverage, Suh with the sack. This is how things are supposed to go.

14:30 - That is not how things are supposed to go. This is a very well-blocked run by Raiders, but Corey Williams makes the mistake they needed. Williams tries to sidestep his blocker. Problem is: this blocker has no interest in Williams and heads to the second level. This hesitation by Williams gets him behind in the play and as a result, he also gets in Suh's way. Willie Young ALMOST gets a hand on him in the backfield but he was the only chance before this run was headed for the first down chains.

14:00 - Neato formation alert!

The Lions bring a safety into the box (John Wendling in this case) and put him on the end. The rest of the line shifts to the right. The Lions did this a lot on Saturday, and it's likely something we'll see against run-heavy teams.

12:30 - Defensive ends continue to get sucked in by misdirection plays, and safeties continue to bail them out with great positioning and tackling.

11:00 - Lions bring two linebackers to blitz on third and short and neither get there. It puzzles me how poor this team is at blitzing. Same story last year.

8:40 - Kind of shocking to type these words, but the secondary bailed out the rest of the defense on the first drive. Very solid tackling from the back four.

8:20 - Kevin Smith starts the game. I KNEW Leshoure didn't really exist.

8:00 - OH MY GOD, IT'S HIM. DID YOU SEE THE MOVE HE PUT ON THE GUY IN THE BACKFIELD. HE'S REAL AND HE'S MOVES SO MAJESTICALLY!

7:05 - Great bubble screen set up for Burleson. Unfortunately, both Pettigrew and Peterman decide not to block anybody.

5:45 - OH MAN, DID YOU SEE LESHOURE CATCH THAT PASS THAT WAS BEHIND HIM AND TURN IT INTO SIX YARDS? GLORIOUS. #LESHOUREGASM

4:30 - So the story of the offensive line for the 20th year in a row is going to be: above average in pass protection, completely absent in run blocking. Great.

3:00 - OKAY THAT WAS SERIOUSLY THE BEST RUN FIVE YARD RUN I'VE EVER SEEN. SHOOK TWO PEOPLE SO HARD OUT OF THEIR SHOES THEY HAD TO GO TO THE SIDELINES FOR NEW EQUIPMENT. #LESHOUREGASM

1:50 - Our kicker is better than yours.

End of first quarter: So our defense holds tight, and gets a three-and-out. Our offense drives pretty far down the field and gets some points. This game is going pretty well. We'll probably just cruise through the rest of the game. Yup. Nothing bad is going to happen the rest of the game.

14:36 - LOOK WHERE BACKUS IS.

Not only does Backus fail to seal the edge, but he's driven literally FIVE YARDS into the backfield. Another bad day for him (at least in terms of run blocking).

13:13 - Scheffler doesn't sell the run well enough on 3rd and short, and is completely covered. Stafford tries to fit the ball in a small window to Titus, but it's low. Nothing more frustrating than 3rd and short failures.

Oh, apparently something else important happened on this play. Leshoure hilariously whiffs on a block and things get considerably less hilarious when we find out the guy he missed broke a blood vessel in Stafford's left hand. BAD LESHOURE. SIT IN A CORNER AND THINK ABOUT WHAT YOU'VE DONE (It's so hard to yell at the little guy. You can see in his eyes he didn't mean to do it. But you gotta give him tough love or he'll think he's the alpha male.)

13:00 - Levy missed tackle. Drink.

11:30 - This is a great example of how the replacement refs' incompetency could cause serious injury. The Lions clearly jump offsides and encroach. The play should be blown dead, since Tulloch is in the backfield and has a free shot at anyone. Luckily, Tulloch assumes the play is going to be blown dead and gives up on the play. If Tully had played assuming there was no whistle, he could have seriously hurt someone not expecting to get hit before the play even started.

10:33 - Unreal catch by Heyward-Bay. I want to get mad at Justin Miller, but he got a hand in there and almost made a good play on a clear mismatch.

8:39 - Laughably bad pass interference call on Erik Coleman.

6:29 - I know they ended up ceding a touchdown, but it's good to know the Lions defense still excels in short-yardage situations. By the way, touchdown was the correct call on the McFadden run.

6:12 - Raiders announcers freaking out that Janikowski is injured, but HAVE FAILED TO MENTION THAT STAFFORD IS INJURED.

3:00 - Just a terrible outing by the offense after the Willie Young pick. First play, Backus fails to completely pull and block the streaking linebacker. Loss of one. Second play, Raiola gets pushed five yards back into Shaun Hill's grill, forcing a quick incompletion. Third play, low throw by Hill forces Megatron to fall and get no yards after the catch. Fourth down: another bad thrown by Hill on a gimme touchdown to Calvin.

Pretty disappointing to see Hill given two opportunities with great field position and turn them into three measly points. While the first drive wasn't really on him (badly missed illegal contact penalty), the second was. Field goals aren't going to cut it with this defense.

1:30 - Missed tackle by Justin Miller could have gotten the Lions off the field on third down. Can't have plays like that when the roster cuts ax is so near.

Overall Thoughts:
That wasn't nearly as bad as I thought. The defense held up fairly well, caused two turnovers, and didn't get burned for a big play outside of the ridiculous catch by Heyward-Bay. The biggest disappointments were the offensive line's run blocking and Shaun Hill's inaccuracies.

However, the secondary continues to make me NOT panic and is tackling well in run coverage. Stafford still moved the ball efficiently, and special teams looked much better. If Stafford would've been in the game, I have full confidence that the Lions would've led at halftime and there wouldn't have been any panic.

In the end, this game didn't teach me much I already didn't know. The run game will still struggle, the defense will bend but will be hard to break, the offense is reliant on Matthew Stafford. The only thing I really DID learn is that Mikel Leshoure exists...and that he gives me a #Leshouregasm

Three Days Late Preseason "Live" Blog!

I was out of town Friday when the Lions faced the Ravens and was only able to watch the first half from afar on an off-brand 32" flat screen in a small New Mexican burger joint. The following is my thoughts upon rewatching the game in the comfort of my own home via DVR technology this morning.

First Quarter:
15:00 - Man, that NFL on FOX theme song is delicious. The following commentary on off-season issues...not so much. I guess we better get used to both.

10 minutes into my DVR and still no football played. Better get used to this, too, I guess.

14:56 - Spievey gets pancaked on opening kickoff after the whistle and doesn't go into rage mode. Progress.

14:56 - *offsides penalty* Nevermind.

12:43 - Avril. Flashes of the San Diego game. Great early recognition of the quick pass.

12:37 - Jacob Lacey does a good job disrupting the route, but a better receiver makes the catch on that third down play.

12:22 - Love how FOX focuses on Ray Lewis, followed by the Lions running right at him and gaining eight. Good seal by Raiola.

11:47 - I thought the panic over the replacement refs was overblown. I was wrong. Ugly stuff with the ball positioning. Was clearly a full yard short.

10:24 - Peterman with a BIG whiff, causing a 4 yard loss. The running game worries: they linger.

9:57 - Awful job the the offensive line on this third and long. Ravens blitz up the A-gap and neither Peterman nor Raiola recognize it. Meanwhile, Peterman whiffs again on the guy he is blocking. Not a good series for him.

8:44 - Flashes of Fairley dominance on this 2nd and short. He athletically swims past his guy and meets Ray Rice four yards into the backfield. Levy does a good job evading his block and cleaning up the mess.

8:02 - Crap call on Fairley. Once again, Lions' strength makes hit look more violent than they are. Hit was barely late.

6:40 - Corey Williams destroyed. Doesn't recognize the counter run, finds himself flat-footed, then thoroughly pancaked. Don't expect to see him around next year.

5:52 - Chris Houston with his second endzone breakup this drive.

5:32 - Helluva breakup by Wendling. If only that cleared my anxieties about secondary depth. If only.

3:05 - Combination of bad read by Stafford and Pettigrew getting out-physicalled on the near pick. Stafford had Burleson early for an easy first down, while Pettigrew couldn't break free of the linebacker.

2:07 - Detroit's defense gets fooled by misdirection plays twice in a row, completely erasing Phil Donahue's beautiful punt.

1:22 - Wow. Just brilliant job by Thom Brennaman to subtly suggest that Fairley's offseason antics caused him to line up offsides. "Looks like Nick Fairley lined up in the neutral zone. I'll tell ya what...Nick Fairley...arrested twice during the offseason...he's facing a pair of trials in his home state of Alabama." *REF CALLS OFFSIDES PENALTY ON DEANDRE LEVY* "Uh..that could've gone against Fairley or the guy it was called on DeAndre Levy." Good cover-up. (to be fair, the penalty should've been on Fairley, but still. Brennaman's a dick.)

1:00 - Levy. Another missed tackle. Has to be his third of the quarter.

Second Quarter

14:48 - Erik Coleman, great run-stopping angle and tackle. Very Delmas-esque. Wendling follows it up with a 3rd down sack. Safeties: stop trying to make me comfortable with you.

13:32 - Titus getting manhandled on a designed play to him. Schwartz getting hot.

12:50 - Logan. Drop. I just don't see his worth on offense. And given how little he ever gets to return kickoffs with new kickoff rule, I really don't see his worth on the team going forward.

12:20 - Just a meager 96-yard drive gained almost completely by Calvin. He's the only receiver I know that can embarrass a DB so bad that it draws an offensive pass interference penalty.

12:13 - Raven's offensive twos are in, while Lions stay with their ones. However, Bentley takes over the two-corner spot for Lacey.

12:08 - Refs are ALL-OVER illegal man down field rulings.

8:31 - Say what you will about the Lions running backs, but I love all of their vision. Always finding the hole...assuming one exists.

7:51 - Great play all around on the Titus TD. It looks as if Backus makes a mistake by leaving an unblocked player on the edge, but, in reality, he did the right thing. Baltimore sends more guys than they can block, so Backus takes the inside blitzer, giving Stafford just the extra second he needs. Matt does a great job getting rid of the ball quickly and in the face of a defender and Titus does the rest.

6:42 - Lions depth beyond the front four on defense looking awful. Ashlee Palmer with a couple mistakes, Tahir Whitehead with a missed tackle,

5:00 - Hey there, Ryan Broyles. Nice to meet you.

3:29 - Andre Fluellen with a great play. First, he squeezes through the line causing the quarterback out of the pocket. Then gets rewarded with a free, blind-side shot at him and takes full advantage.

2:51 - Reiff getting work on the right side (Fox on left). Struggling a bit. First, gives the end the outside free, where Shaun Hill happens to be scrambling, then lets an end come through unblocked on the next play (unsure whether that was his fault).

0:34 - Ashlee Palmer missed tackle. Drink!

Third Quarter

I don't care if I'm not in it, this is my new Christmas card.

13:56 - Not sure what's going on but Gerberry and Reiff not on the same page. Continually letting one man through unblocked.

8:54 - How many "Fire Stan Kwan" tweets did I miss?

6:25 - Just made an audible gasp when someone rolled up on Reiff's ankle. Wasn't aware he was made of pure rubber. By the way, he settled in nicely. Good drive here.

4:27 - Not going to waste a lot of time on Kellen Moore. Just know this: if he's playing, the Lions' season is over.

Fourth Quarter:

15:00 - Willie Young vs. third team special teamers. Not. Fair.

13:57 -

Jim Schwartz smiles. There is now photogenic evidence of this happening. He looks like he's straining his entire body to do so. I'm sure his face is still sore for stretching those muscles that clearly haven't been used in years.

13:18 - Lions fail to do the one thing I want to see them do: pick up a third and short on the ground. Of course, the scab refs blow it and give them the first down anyway.

12:50 - Joique Bell: how to look simultaneous awesome and terrible on a play.

12:00 - Not sure what Young is still doing in, but the Lions should be protecting their future golden goose. He disrupted nearly every play in this drive.

7:56 - DVR mercifully gives out in the middle of the most awkward-looking Kellen Moore drive.

Overall thoughts:

• Lions offense still hasn't really found its rhythm outside of throwing the ball to Calvin. But I'm not exactly worried.
• Defensive backfield held up pretty well. Good to see Houston make some plays.
• Defensive depth behind first stringers...a bit worrisome. Lot of missed tackles by linebackers.
• Reiff looked decent but hesitant. Still very much a rookie. 

Decision 2012: Lions or Bears?

Asking around, you'll be hard pressed to find someone who doesn't view the Green Bay Packers as the NFC North's clear favorite going into the 2012 season. But ask someone who will be creeping in the Packers' shadow in second place, and you'll find yourself in an all-out warpath of bickering, condemning and hatred.

Mlive's latest version of "Ask Anwar" begins with two Lions fans complaining about the Bears getting too much hype in the offseason. ESPN's NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert's weekly chats have been dominated by smack talk between Detroit and Chicago. Lions fans are offended by the media's infatuation with the 2012 Bears. Bears fans are sickened by the pompous Lions fans who are way too excited over their one playoff berth.

At the crux of this debate are two key issues: which team was better in 2011, and which team improved most in the offseason? So let's answer those questions.

Which team was better in 2011?
To most Lions fans, the answer seems obvious. The Lions finished with two more wins, a postseason berth and scored over 100 points more than the Bears. Advantage Lions. But the answer is far more complicated. 

One way we can analyze which team was better is by looking at the head-to-head games between the two. In the first game, the two met in Detroit for the Lions' first home Monday Night Football game since 2001. The game was tight for the entire duration, with the Lions coming out on top after two big offensive plays. Both teams played incredibly well (especially Jay Cutler, who was running for his life the entire game). However, the Lions were aided by a wildly enthusiastic crowd who helped force NINE false start penalties. The Lions still looked like the better team that day, but hardly in a decisive manner.

The other head-to-head matchup came in week 10. The Lions were thoroughly mauled by the Bears, 37-13. In what was a seemingly essential game, it was surprising to see the Lions drop a game so decisively. Of course, the main defense by Lions fans was that Matthew Stafford had recently suffered a broken finger, and his play clearly showed he had not fully recovered. This point, however, was clearly refuted by Stafford himself. The truth is likely somewhere in between. Stafford's four interceptions cannot all be blamed on his finger, but at the same time, he wasn't playing like the kid who had only previously thrown four total interception all season. The Bears were clearly the better team that day, if for no other reason than the fact that they made fewer mistakes. 

Head-to-head matchups don't really seem to give us a clear conclusion. When both teams are playing their best, the Lions came out on top. But they also had a clear home-field advantage. We also saw that the Lions were probably much more prone to making mistakes, but an injured Stafford exacerbated that issue. Since the Lions finished with a better record, we can use that as a tie-breaker, right? Well, not exactly.

After the second matchup between the two, both teams stood at 6-3 and with nearly identical records in the tie-breakers. So here's a closer look at the two teams as they stood after week 10.

Lions: Points For: 252; Points Allowed: 184
Bears: Points For: 237; Points Allowed: 187

At the time, Football Outsiders had the Bears at 9th in DVOA while the Lions ranked 14th.

Any way you slice it, the teams were just about dead even. Then the rest of the season happened. The two teams clearly diverged.

The Lions went 4-3 down the stretch, while the Bears stumbled, finishing 2-5. It's impossible to ignore the fact that Jay Cutler was lost for the season in week 11 with a broken wrist. From there, the Bears lost to the Raiders by five, the Chiefs by seven, and the Broncos by three (in OT). With Cutler healthy, it is hard to imagine the Bears dropping all three of those games.

In fact, looking closer, we can see the exact impact losing Cutler (and Matt Forte later in the season) had on the team. Before Cutler went down, the Bears averaged 26.8 points a game. After he went down, the Bears averaged 14.2(!!). In none of those six remaining games did they ever reach the average amount of points a Cutler-led offense scored. Still not convinced? Well, the Bears were averaging 332.9 yards per game with Cutler under center. With him on the sidelines? 283. 

Meanwhile, the Lions squeaked out miracle games against the Vikings and Raiders. 

What I'm getting at is the Lions were much closer to a 9-7 team than they were an 11-5 team. Of their six losses, only two felt truly winnable: at home against the 49ers, where the Lions were a few inches short of stopping the Niners on a game-deciding fourth down conversion and the season finale against a second-string Packers team. However, the Lions could have easily lost games against the Cowboys, Vikings (twice), Raiders, and Panthers. 

And the Bears were a much better team than their 8-8 record suggests. Had Cutler not gone down, there's no way Chicago drops five of their final six games. Injuries are obviously a part of the game, but if Lions fans are going to use the broken finger excuse for the second Bears game, they have to admit that losing Cutler probably cost the Bears at least 1-2 game, likely more. And if Bears fans are going to complain about losing Cutler, they, too, have to admit that Stafford's injury hurt the Lions' chances that day in Soldier Field.

Now I'm not going to make any definitive statements about which team was better last year, because it's impossible to prove. But it's clear that both sides of the debate have valid points, and it's too close to say unequivocally.

Which team improved most in the offseason?

Again, the answer seems obvious when looking at things from the outside. The Bears made headlines in the offseason for their acquisition of star wide receiver Brandon Marshall and solid depth running back Michael Bush. The Lions made headlines in the offseason for all the wrong reasons. Countless arrests resulted in public embarrassment and the loss of a starting cornerback. 

Of course, the answer isn't as simple as that.

Both teams have glaring issues that were not addressed this offseason. The Bears had a lot of pass protection issues last year. Last season, they were sacked 49 times last year (fifth most). The positive spin the Bears have put on this issue is that they have improved their pass protection through addition by subtraction. Dropping offensive coordinator Mike Martz and transitioning to a more balanced offense will mask this deficiency, so the claims go.

The Lions secondary is the black eye they are trying to cover up. Already an issue going into the offseason, matters weren't made any better when projected starter Aaron Berry found himself in trouble with the law and eventually without a job. There's no doubt that this is the one part of the Lions' roster that actually took a step back from last year, but like the Bears, Lions fans are hard at working trying to calm the storm. Enter: Bill Bentley. Word out of camp is that Bentley is reeking havoc all over the field. That's relieving news for Lions fans, but it shouldn't calm all fears. Though they'll never admit it, Lions coaches are likely losing sleep over the fact that they may be starting a third-round rookie at cornerback week one of the 2012 season. And the depth at the corner and safety positions is terrifyingly slim.

While it appears the Bears have made a few more additions to improve this years' roster, that is not the only factor in deciding whether a team will improve or regress the following season. One of the most overlooked issues is progression of returning players.

Some of the Bears' key players are reaching the tail-end of their careers, including Brian Ulracher (age 34) and Julius Peppers (32). In fact, the average age of their projected starters* on defense is 28.5. Meanwhile, the Lions' key players on defense (Ndamukong Suh, Cliff Avril, etc.) are hitting the peaks of their careers. The average age of Lions defensive starters is 26.7. On offense, the Lions are actually a year older on average (28.5 to 27.5), but at key positions (WR, QB and RB) the Lions are younger and improving more.

So, again, the conclusion is inconclusive. The Bears have added more weapons this offseason, while the Lions spent the offseason fine-tuning the weapons they already had. Both teams are poised to make a playoff run this season, and there's no clear leader for second place in the NFC North. Lions fans feel victimized by the media because of the offseason antics, but the truth is the Lions were benefactors of an injured Cutler last year and still have some major concerns. Bears fans complain that they are being overlooked because of Cutler injuries last year, but the truth is the Lions took it to them with a healthy Cutler and the Bears still have questions on offense. Both teams are great candidates for wild card spots in the 2012 season but neither team has a clear better shot than the other.

*To determine projected starters, I used ESPN's current depth chart for both the Lions and Bears

Offseason Round-Up

We're less than two months away from opening kickoff for the 2012 NFL season. This means two things: 1) My football dreams are in full swing and 2) I can no longer avoid the offseason. It's been a tumultuous offseason, and as hard as I tried to bury my head in the sand, I couldn't escape the storm cloud hanging over Allen Park. So here it is: my one and only post addressing everything that "happened" this offseason.

The Draft Happened
I wrote briefly on how I suffered a momentary lapse of emotional control and actually got excited for the draft. But I never really explained my thoughts on the choices the Lions made. Many trashed the Lions for failing to address their most pressing needs. I disagree. The Lions drafted what they needed most: depth. Many of the Lions' shortcoming last year can be traced back to a lack of depth.

Considering they a lost the very-underrated Bobby Carpenter to free agency, the addition of Ronnel Lewis and Tahir Whitehead should give the Lions some much-needed depth at the linebacker position. The outlook for the 2012 season is a little shaky with the Lions' backups having almost zero experience (Ashlee Palmer and Doug Hogue being the most experienced with a combined seven total starts). However, the Lions were able to retain Stephen Tulloch, who was an absolute beast last year. Linebacker was a very overlooked need for the Lions, and they picked up three guys who will no doubt be a part of the Lions future and could even potentially offer some relief this season.

As for the secondary, the Lions addressed that need by grabbing Dwight "Bill" Bentley in the third round. Janoris Jenkins was the popular secondary fix among Lions fans when he was still available at the bottom of the first round, but the Lions, and may other teams, didn't believe in the hype and Jenkins fell out of the first round completely. He was eventually snatched up by the Rams early in the second day. Bentley isn't going to be the shutdown corner Lions fans were praying for, but he provides a good amount of speed and coverage skills that the Lions were lacking since the Bucs signed Eric Wright to THE WORST CONTRACT EVER (not an exaggeration? Kalimba Edwards, anyone?). The biggest knock on Bentley is his lack of physicality, which is a bit concerning. However, I'm not going to bury a guy I've never seen play live. Not a very sexy pick, but let's play the wait-and-see game for once.

In addition to Bentley, the Lions also added much needed depth with the selection of Chris Greenwood in the fifth. Greenwood is a division III player who probably won't see the field for awhile. The general consensus among scouts is his measureables are good, but his talent is raw. In other words, get ready for another developmental project a la Sammie Lee Hill.

That leaves us with the Lions' first two selections: tackle Riley Reiff and wide receiver Ryan Broyles. Reiff projects to be, at the very least, a starting right tackle. However, common belief is that Reiff will be nurtured as Jeff Backus' eventual replacement. The Broyles selection, as well, seems to be aimed at replacing an aging player (Nate Burleson). But Broyles could provide an immediate impact, as long as his recovery from an ACL injury continues to progress.

The Lions draft strategy is fairly clear: draft for the future, not necessarily the present. There's a very good chance that none of the players drafted this year make the field in week one. And while I understand this can be frustrating for fans who are expecting the Lions to make a jump into the elite category this year, this is the correct move by the Lions front office. When your team's wins can be counted on one hand, it's easy to add talent that can come in and immediately upgrade your roster. However, when your team starts making the postseason, the primary goal shifts from immediate improvement to maintaining success.

The NFL is funny. A team that barely squeezes into the playoffs can go on a tear all the way to a Super Bowl title. Meanwhile, a team that dominated the entire regular season can get bounced in their first playoff game. For a team to be a Super Bowl contender, they don't have to have the indisputably best roster. They need a couple key pieces (a franchise QB, for one) and enough surrounding pieces to make them competitive against the elite. The rest is up to fate, probability and luck. The Lions proved last year they can compete with nearly any team in the league and with a very similar roster for the 2012 season, there's no reason to think they can't do the same this year. But with some key players drawing near the end of their careers, the Lions staff needs to consider moves that will keep the Lions above the threshold of competitiveness for the future. And that's exactly what they did.

Undrafted Free Agency Happened.
The Lions signed some guys who weren't drafted, with Kellen Moore headlining the group. I will address these players as soon as they make the 53-man roster (which is likely never for 95% of them). Moving on.

OTAs and Minicamp Happened
Some players looked good. While others...also looked good. None of this constitutes as news and absolutely nothing should be inferred from the players' performances here.

Thuggery Happened
Light poles were smashed. Weed was purchased, smoked, and eaten. Cars were drunk-driven. Teammates were sucker-punched. But perhaps the most heinous (and overlooked) act was Ndamukong Suh's appearance on reality TVs latest atrocity: "The Choice." I have to imagine given Suh's past, a huge fine and long suspension is forthcoming. In most of these offseason incidents, no one was hurt, but Suh's reckless behavior caused the tens--maybe even hundred--of people watching to seek medical attention for deyearrhea (diarrhea of the eyes). Fellow Detroit Lions writer, Justin Rogers was one victim of Suh's senseless actions. Please send your warmest regards to him and his family. Let's hope for a speedy recovery.

To be super serial for a second or two, it has been a terribly disappointing and frustrating offseason. As a fan, it's awfully hard to come to terms that the same people I idolize for five months of the year also are prone to making terrible, self-destructing choices. But my anger starts and ends with only the individuals involved. As he usually does, Ty from Lions in Winter nailed the situation perfectly:

The Lions’ arrests are individual incidents. Mikel Leshoure, with friends in southwest Michigan. Nick Fairley, back home in Alabama. Aaron Berry, after participating in Lesean McCoy's charity softball game. There’s absolutely no connection between any of these player’s bad decisions—except who signs their paychecks.

There's no reason to condemn the locker room, the other players, or the coaches. I'm sure all parties have done all they possibly could to prevent these things from happening (especially after the third, fourth and fifth instances), but in the end, it is the individual who throws the punch, slams his foot on the accelerator or takes the hit from his pipe. It just so happens that these individuals all play for the Lions.

This is where all my anger and vitriol for the offseason stems from. People are so bat-shit crazy for the NFL that anything and everything is turned into something significant for the upcoming season. One offseason incident turns into a few, then suddenly there's a "culture problem." And if there's a culture problem in the locker room (despite the fact that the players haven't been in a locker room together in 2 months), that must mean the entire team will play with the same immaturity and poor decision making. Therefore, the Lions suck again. It's a simple case of A + 3 = orange.

Cliff Avril Signing Did Not Happen
Despite my efforts to simply will a deal done with my incessant optimism, the Lions and Avril failed to reach a long-term agreement. This is disappointing, no doubt, but not devastating. Avril has already said that he will not sit out the 2012 season. While it would be nice to have the security of having Avril around for years to come, I'm not so sure he's worth what he thinks he is. He is definitely the best DE on the roster, but he's yet to prove himself worthy of an elite contract. Getting $10.6 million this season is probably overpaying him. Jared Allen current contract has him averaging $12.2 million a year, while Dwight Freeney is getting $12 million a year. Avril's one-year franchise deal would put him at the 8th highest paid DE (based a yearly average of current contracts). Avril (0.53 sacks per game) would be earning more than Elvis Dumervil (0.7 sack/game), Will Smith (0.5 sacks/game) and Trent Cole (0.63 sacks per game).

The biggest advantage Avril has over those players is his youth. At 26, Avril's best days are still ahead of him. Still, Dumervil is only 28 and is averaging 11 sacks a year for his last four seasons.* Avril deserves to get paid, but not the likes of Dumervil...yet**. Ideally, Avril proves his worth again this season, and the Lions pay the man in the 2013 offseason.

I thought the Lions' offer of $30 million over three years was more than fair, but Avril did not agree. That's fine. That's his prerogative and I have no problem when an athlete tries to get all the money he believes he's worth. He's taking a healthy risk here, but I'll give him credit for truly believing his worth and his willingness to prove it again this year. He's also been unbelievably classy during this emotionally-challenging time. Class act.

My biggest concern about this entire situation is where it puts the Lions in 2013. According to Pride Of Detroit: Corey Williams, Aaron Berry, Louis Delmas, Justin Durant, Sammie Hill, Chris Houston, Lawrence Jackson, Willie Young, DeAndre Levy and Jacob Lacey are all set to become free agents at the end of the season. I have to imagine Delmas, Houston, and Jackson are of the highest priorities, while players like Williams and Lacey are probably headed for other teams in 2013. It's a tough situation on the horizon, but it's all the more reason why the Lions drafted for the future.

Training Camp Will Happen Soon
Training camp starts in about a week and I'll go ahead and tell you what you're going to hear:

• Reiff is pushing for Backus' and Cherilus' job (he won't have it by week one).
• Avril sits out a week of camp, fans pissed. Week later: Avril signs his tender, fans move onto something else to complain about.
• Mikel LeShoure is "running with a purpose."
• Lions look focused and determined to put offseason woes behind them.
• Stafford is still good.
• Calvin is still good.
• One run-of-the-mill training camp scuffle with make national news just because.

As a fan, there should be only one thing you are rooting for during training camp: no injuries. I will be in Israel during the first week in training camp, and while I'm not a religious person, I will not waste the opportunity of being at the world's epicenter of religion and pray to football Zeus that he spare our beloved Lions. 

*2010 excluded: Dumervil sat out entire year due to pectoral tear
**If you want to get technical, at 10.6 million, Avril's 2012 cap hit will actually be larger than Mario Williams' (9.8 million), which is kind of ridiculous.