The Darkest Timeline

 I can come up with a lot of scenarios of how the Lions win this game, but I'm finding it hard to come up with ways the Lions drop this one.

- Me, previewing the Lions/Titans game

What a moron. How did I not see this coming? How did I not see the Titans pulling out the Music City Miracle play? How did I not see the Lions giving up a return touchdown? How did I not see the Lions giving up the most 60+ yard touchdowns in one game in NFL history? How did I not see this Lions defense let Jake Locker look like Aaron Rodgers (or, I guess, Matt Flynn)? How did I not see six(!!) touchdowns in the final 6:53 of regulation? How did I not see the Lions "miscommunicating" on the final play of the game?

Oh, because I'm not crazy person. Or, at least, I wasn't. If that game was a food, the FDA would have banned it for causing ailments previously unknown to man. Side effects include: prehistoric grunting, wall-punching, spontaneous stripping, and overactive twitter.

But beyond all the improbable, inconceivable plays, the Lions didn't really deserve to win this game. The offense, continuing their stretch of the most frustrating unit in the NFL, came out slow, once again. Game plan be damned, the Lions made mental errors on third down that resulted in field goals rather than touchdowns.

The defense is in shambles. Opposing quarterbacks are slowly, but steadily shredding the Lions defense to pieces. There's no pass rush, the safety play is horrible, the cornerbacks are below-average, and the linebackers are a non-factor in the pass game. Here's what teams are doing to this Lions team:

Sam Bradford: 17-25, 198 yards, 105.1 passer rating
Alex Smith: 20-31, 226 yards, 107.7 passer rating
Jake Locker: 29-42, 378 yards, 113.0 passer rating

Three quarterback that most people would not consider top ten quarterbacks absolutely lighting up the Lions defense. They now rank 29th in passer rating allowed.

And this is not just the Lions suffering from bad secondary injuries. Granted, Chris Houston looked pretty good yesterday, and Louis Delmas is to John Wendling as Ed Reed is to Pat Carter (some freshman Idaho State DB I randomly googled). But the Lions front four isn't getting any consistent pressure, blitzing schemes are not working, and many of the Lions are reacting too slow to their zone reads. Getting Delmas back will be huge, but it won't solve everything.

But despite all this mud-slinging and finger-pointing, the Lions were in a position come away with a road win...twice. First, the Lions took their first lead late in the fourth quarter, 27-20. But then they proceeded to committ several devastating errors, starting with the ensuing kickoff return TD. Then they committed a killer holding penalty on the ensuing offensive drive. Then Wendling took a horrible angle and Nate Washington made a miracle catch. Then Brandon Pettigrew handed the ball off to the Titans for a touchdown, injuring Matthew Stafford in the process.

And despite ALL of that, one miracle later, the Lions again had a chance to win the game. Watching it all unfold pulled the memory of my afternoon in Ann Arbor on the day of The Horror from the depths of my subconscious. Obviously, Tennessee wasn't the underdog that Appalachian State was, but the fan experience was the same. The Lions were supposed to win this game, they had played horribly, but there they were, on the doorstep of putting the ugly experience behind them. In Ann Arbor, it was a blocked field goal. In Tennessee, it was an ugly miscommunication that resulted in the worst QB sneak in history. The portal to escape catastrophe was a step away, but we tripped just before the stargate slammed shut. We're now left to wander this horrid universe, not completely sure of where or who we are.

Michigan turned out to be a terrible team that year and got absolutely embarrassed the following week against Oregon. Next week, the Lions host a 2-1 Minnesota Vikings team that just dismantled a 49ers team that many believed was the best team in the league. Nervous?

If Raiola doesn't snap that ball, and the Lions go on to win, we escape this darkest timeline and we're likely spending this morning forgiving and excusing the Lions' poor play. But we have to accept our reality and the mistakes are impossible to ignore.

And the problems the Lions are suffering from are not even new. They're the same ones that plagued the Lions' 2011 season: iffy secondary, disappointing pass rush, slow starts by the offense. People excused them because the Lions ended up pulling nearly every close game out of their ass. We all swallowed the "Win" Pill, conveniently allowing us to avoid and ignore the true problems that exist. Now we're running out of Win Pills and while we still may not understand the universe we currently exist in, it's beginning to look like the darkest timeline.

Three Days Late "Live" Blog: Lions at 49ers

This is a recounting of tales from Sunday night's game against the 49ers, which I attended.

First Quarter:

13:48 - Using timeouts on your first drive of the game makes me angry...unless it works. Let's see how the Lions come out from that timeout. 

13:41 - Damnit. 

13:25 - Cliff Avril is the latest defensive line victim of the misdirection plays. Getting pretty sick of EVERY misdirection working against this defense. 

13:00 - So the Lions come out running and the Niners come out passing. Did not see this coming. 

12:44 - Wendling abused #1

12:25: Wendling abused #2

The first mistake by Wendling was just poor form. He had his hips turned the wrong way and got turned around in an embarassing fashion. The second was Wendling underestimating Vernon Davis' speed. He simply let Davis run by him and couldn't catch up. Inexperience at it's finest.

10:00 - 49ers sent TWO defenders to pass rush. This is why we did not pass all day.

9:42 - STOP TRYING TO RUN OUTSIDE OF BACKUS. HE CANNOT SEAL ALDON SMITH WITHOUT HOLDING HIM.

9:21 - Terrible pass interference call. I'll take the free three points, anyway.

9:15 - If that ball to Scheffler is a little higher, the corner doesn't get his hand on it and Scheffler Gangnam Styles in the endzone I'm standing in. Sadface.

6:47 - Second third-down pass deflected. This whole running ourselves into 3rd and short thing does not seem to be working out.

6:32 - Hey, wham play. Didn't miss you at all.

5:20 - Fun fact: Drayton Florence is from Tuskegee University. Funner fact: Tuskegee has a University.

2:21 - Bad throw by Stafford, worse attempt(?) at a tackle by Titus Young. Cost the Lions 20 yards of field position. 

0:43 - Fun fact: Drayton Florence likes giving his opponents four free points. 

-00:01 - Ultimately, it's on the Lions for not making a play here. But it's hard not to get frustrated when they blow it on a play that shouldn't have happened.

Second Quarter:

14:10 - Joique Bell just joiqued that Niner out of his joiques. Joique!

9:53 - Lions with a...COVERAGE sack? Nice.

8:36 - If Crabtree doesn't drop that pass...uh oh.

That's a lot of green in front of him.

8:20 - 2:46 - This is exactly what the Lions tried to do for the entirety of the game. Kevin smith ran the ball six times for 25 yards, Stafford completed two passes of 10+ yards. It was a great, great drive. And it ended with no points.

Third Quarter:

11:27 - Suh having a solid day in pass rushing. Pretty meh in run coverage, though.

11:00 - Levy missed tackle. Drink.

6:30 - Holy crap, Kevin Smith made it to the second level! 

5:00 - Ouch. Ouch. Ouch. After a good gain on first down, Joique blows it on a crucial play. He could have put his head down and picked up at least 2-3 yards in the intended hole. Instead he tried to bounce it outside and lost a yard. Once again, DON'T RUN IT OUTSIDE WHEN BACKUS IS NOT TRYING TO SEAL ALDON SMITH.

3:44 - Another frustratingly good drive that ends in disappointment. If those last two offensive drives had finished better...

Fourth Quarter:

14:56 - Drop. Phew.

14:51 - Drop. Phew.

14:47- Drop. Phew.

11:55 - Love, love, LOVE, this read by Stafford. Checks the play at the line and calls a perfect QB draw. 

10:32 - I equally hate, hate, HATE this misread by Stafford. He takes a bad sack here when he EASILY could have had at least eight yards.

Drive killer. Another good drive wasted by one missed opportunity.

The following is a verbatim transcript of what I said live at San Francisco:

9:10 - Holy crap, that is the first unassisted tackled I've ever seen by DeAndre Levy.

7:00 - Holy crap, that is the second unassisted tackled I've ever seen by DeAndre Levy.

6:59 - 3:11 - Four straight minutes of obscenities. Most frustrating defensive drive ever.

2:32 - Bell trying to make amends on this screen. Good read by him and great downfield blocking.

2:00 - Titus Young with his first and only catch of the day with two minutes left. I continue to be disappointed with him. 

1:45 - That side-armed throw by Stafford on fourth down is really something to see in person.

1:40 - WHY WON'T THE UNIVERSE JUST GIVE ME A SCHEFFLER GANGNAM STYLE CELEBRATION?!? 

1:29 - I hate this onside kick attempt. Not only have I never seen it work, I've never seen it come close. I understand the Niners were loading the line, but its much harder to grab a ball midair than it is to just fall on it. Just do it normally next time, please.

Overall

I was shocked to see how not-bad the offense was in this game. Look at the final four drives (excluding the drive where the Lions ran out the clock): 11 plays, 65 yards; 10 plays, 39 yards; 9 plays, 50 yards; 10 plays, 80 yards. Those aren't outstanding numbers, but against San Francisco's defense that certainly ain't too shabby. 

This game might've gone much differently if it weren't for three key plays: Hanson's missed FG, Joique Bell's bad read, and Stafford's missed read. That's potentially an 11-point swing. Of course, I'm sure the Niners could just as easily play the what-if game, but those were three VERY minor changes that could have easily gone Detroit's way. I feel much better having rewatched the broadcast and going into Tennessee next week. 

Stafford Infection: Eyes

Matthew Stafford had some trouble in the first half against the St. Louis Rams. This is not news. He threw three interceptions that left many fans scratching their heads wondering what had happened to their franchise quarterback. Indeed, all of those interceptions were pretty ugly looking and concerning. However, what most people didn't see was the adjustment Stafford made in the second half to prevent the Rams from getting a fourth or fifth pick.

In the first half, the Rams defenders were jumping routes with impressive instincts. They seemingly knew where the ball was going before Stafford did. But the Rams defenders don't have ESP, they were just reading Stafford's eyes.

Over at Pride Of Detroit, I broke down all of Stafford's interceptions, but take a look at Stafford's second interception, specifically. (click pictures to big-ify)

As you can see, Stafford is eyeing his target (Brandon Pettigrew) the entire time. The Rams linebacker, Jo-Lonn Dunbar, is already breaking on the route before Stafford has even begun his throwing motion. The aggressive play by the defender was typical of the first half of this game. An adjustment was needed.

In the second half of the game, Stafford started to use the Rams' aggressiveness against them. How did he do it? With his eyes.

Early in the fourth, facing a 3rd and 10, backed up near their own endzone, the Lions needed a big play, and they nearly got it thanks to Stafford's misdirection. Matthew eyes the receiver along the sideline, drawing the linebacker that way. Pettigrew is a running a route that will occupy the space that the linebacker is vacating. From another angle:

Here, you can clearly see the linebacker cheating right, so Stafford squares up and fires a bullet at the wide open Pettigrew. Unfortunately...

...he airmails it. The Lions are forced to punt, but have found a glaring defect in the Rams' defense.

And on the very last drive of the game, Stafford and the Lions took advantage of this new-found weakness and exploited it to perfection. 

Here, we see Stafford glancing to the right just for a split-second. The Rams defender (#58) is again trying to read Stafford's eyes. He hesitates, and even slightly drifts to the right. Behind him, Nate Burleson is cutting into the vacated space. There's not much room, but that is all a quarterback like Stafford needs. He fires a bullet just over the defender's hands leading to a big gain. 

First down. Six plays later, the Lions win the game. 

Next week, facing another aggressive defense in the Niners, Stafford will need to use his eyes again to keep the defenders guessing. However, with the 49ers' strong defensive line, Stafford will not be afforded the time to misdirect defenders that he had against the Rams. He will have to go through his progressions quicker, and make his misdirections more subtle. 

Same Old Lions

I wish I could come out and say "You know, I could get used to this." But the truth is, I can't. The Lions will be the death of me. Yet, it's what we have all come to expect from this team. Infuriatingly slow starts, followed by amazing comebacks. Of course, it is much better than the alternative. As long as the Lions come out on top, I guess it doesn't matter, but my developing ulcers are starting to think differently.

The Lions offense was particularly maddening. Matthew Stafford and company started off hot tallying over 150 yards in their first two drives. Yet they were down 13-10 at the break. They played a pretty awful second half, managing only 43 yards in their first four drives, yet finished with two near-perfect drives and got the win. Their inconsistencies are nothing new, as this was a common motif last year, but it's frustrating nonetheless.

The only difference from last year is most of the Lions' inconsistencies were the fault of Stafford on Sunday. Though Stafford was the victim of a couple of bad drops, the Lions completely avoided any harmful penalties (Titus Young's penalty, while extremely idiotic, was completely harmless). According to Jim Schwartz, most of Stafford's interceptions were the result of Matt trying to fit the ball in too tight of a window. And while Stafford has certainly been guilty of this in the past, I can't agree with Schwartz on this one. I'm going to break down some of these play more thoroughly later in the week, but I'm almost positive on one particular interception, Stafford read man-to-man when the Rams were actually in zone.

But in the end, I'm not all that concerned about Stafford. He's got a certain amount of gun-slingerness in him, and it's going to result in interceptions fairly often. I don't really expect that to ever change, and it probably shouldn't. Stafford will likely always be a quarterback who takes chances, and more often than not, it'll pay off.

But what DOES concern me is the way he came out in the second half. Stafford, clearly a little rattled from three first-half picks, was too careful and too inaccurate. He was making sure that his passes were out of the defender's reach, but in the process, he put it out of the receiver's reach. For maybe the first time ever, Stafford was cautious, and that's when the Lions offense looked its worst.

But, of course, Stafford eventually got comfortable, dialed in, and finished the game with two beautiful 80 yard drives to win the game. So in the end, does all that ugly stuff matter?

Well, yes and no. Obviously, it is not a good sign that Stafford had some trouble, then took a quarter and a half to fully recover. But on a per-play basis, the Lions offense was just as dominant as it was last year. Stafford's 7.4 yards per attempt was 0.2 off his 2011 average, and his 355 yards was his 7th most of his career. The Lions offense outgained their 2011 average, and overall looked just as dominant.

Even with the Lions traveling to San Francisco next week, where the Niners look like they haven't lost a step defensively, I wouldn't expect Stafford to make the same mistakes. He will take a long, hard look at those throws he made, learn his lesson and move on.

Oh, and speaking of defense, I guess I should briefly talk about the other side of the ball. The defense was kind of bend-don't-breaky, but it worked to perfection. The Lions waited for the Sam Bradford and the Rams to stall, and they usually complied. The Lions tackled solidly, the front four was dominant again, and in the end, despite the Lions offense giving them no favors, the defense held the Rams to just 16 points (10 of which were on drives that started in Lions territory).

The biggest question surrounding the Lions defense was not addressed this game. The Lions' depleted secondary was not really tested on Sunday. The Rams had maybe two deep passes in the game. One resulted in a touchdown (though Jonte Green had decent coverage, it was just an amazing play by the receiver to hold on), the other was an underthrown bomb to a wide-open receiver that Dreyton Florence was able to catch up to and knock away. With Bill Bentley suffering a concussion, and Houston's and Delmas' availability still unknown, I'd expect to learn more about this unit next week against the improving Niners offense.

But for now, we're 1-0, we're the exact same team as last year, and I guess I'm okay with that.

Long Train Runnin'

When the Lions walked off the rugged New Orleans turf in early January, it was a tough site to see. I mourned not the loss itself, but the eight Lions-less months that lay ahead. Little did I know how painful it would be.

If you're reading this, you're likely a Lions fan and survivor of the shit-storm that was the Lions' offseason. I don't need to chronicle the offseason woes, we've all heard too much about them already. But what it's led to has been more significant to me. I can shake offseason issues and easily forget about character faults once the game-clock moves to 14:59. And, typically, I have no problem avoiding the talking heads spewing their typical filth about how the immature and overrated the Lions are going to be.

But for some reason, it got to me this year. At first, I went through my typical anger. I figured the Lions had finally gained some well-earned respect from last year. If anyone denied such things because a couple players had impaired judgement while drinking, they were the idiots. But then the sentiment grew. People I respect started telling me the Lions were due for a regression.

When everyone is around you telling you something is true, even when you believe it is false, you start to believe it anyway. Psychologist Solomon Asch was famous for his conformity experiments that identified this phenomenon. And like the unknowing test subjects, I fell for the lie. Armchair Linebacker calls it "The Fear," I liken it to an abused animal. After the horrors of the past decade, I have never learned to fully put my trust in the Lions. I was burned after a 6-2 start. I was burned after an electric 4-0 preseason. I was burned by a first-round quarterback. I didn't want to get burned again after a 10-6 season, especially with Tampa Bay's fall from grace still fresh in my mind.

For 2012, I predicted a slight regression to 9-7, or even as low as 8-8.

But then I remembered this:

I remembered where this all began. I remember immediately thinking knowing that this was the beginning of something special. I remembered that last year wasn't a flash-in-the-pan, but had been building from this exact moment.

I remembered 2010. I remembered sitting in the surprisingly chilly Raymond James stadium with my father sitting in disbelief as Drew Stanton led a 3-10 Lions team to a fourth quarter comeback win, ending the Lions' awful away losing streak. I remembered hugging any stranger in Honolulu blue in the concourse and the embrace forcing tears to well up in my eyes. I remember sitting in a hotel room just outside of Disneyworld that night re-watching the gif of Jim Schwartz fist-pumping for 20 minutes straight.

Then I remembered the following week, where from high atop the bleachers in Miami, I again witnessed an improbably comeback win. I remembered someone named Nathan Vasher grabbing a Chad Henne overthrow. I remember the boos; the all-too-familiar boos. But never had the boos been as satisfying as they were on that windy afternoon.

Then I remembered last year. With the leftover optimism from 2010's four game win streak, and the return of Matthew Stafford, every Lions fan's cup runneth over with Kool-aide. I tried to slow my imagination from exploring the true ceiling for this team, allowing "The Fear" to slide it's way in again, but when the Lions jumped to a 5-0 record, even the most caution Lions fan couldn't be contained.

Then literally hundreds of highlights flooded my mind. Tony Scheffler swashbuckling on opening weekend. Cliff Avril levitating in mid-air, grasping the pigskin from the heavens, and trudging into the endzone and the playoffs. The dismantling of Tim Tebow. Megatron doing everything physically possible, and most things impossible.

But then I remembered the bumps in the road last year. The bad starts to games. The embarrassment on Soldier Field. The disasters against the Packers and Saints. The fear. But throughout all the turbulence, the Lions managed to improve by four games, make the playoffs for the first time in over a decade and complete the most entertaining season of my lifetime. Up until a few days ago, I thought all of this progression and improvement lead to last year's amazing run. I don't believe that anymore.

The Lions story is not done. They have been building for too long, overcoming all adversity they've faced to let a poor offseason derail this train. Whether it has been a separated shoulder, a 20-point deficit, a decade-long winless streak, or a depleted roster, the Lions have persevered. Experts (and my own doubt) be damned, this team's arrow is still pointing up, and this year, there is no limit to their potential.

Go Lions.